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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But given that the start of the 2nd half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the theoretical threshold for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our primary question is: are we taking a look at a brand-new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the market seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The implication is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the rate has actually been driven down by investors offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings went beyond expectations: Many investors were worried that as stocks plunged, this slump would also be shown in their revenues report. The reports were not almost as bad as many feared.
Financiers are expecting an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is occurring too soon, before the essential financial objectives have actually been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place typically, and this has indeed been a huge one. Compared to the three previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which typically happen before the one that is sustainable shows up and starts the next bull market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bear market rally. History shows that we might have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not unprecedented.
Inflation should boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next booming market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity rates falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to deteriorate. Regardless of these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to halt interest rate hikes.
In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls around 10 various ETFs, providing direct exposure to different sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay optimistic that we may have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will result in the next bull market. For that to take place, inflation still requires to come down.