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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Since the start of the second half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the hypothetical limit for a brand-new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we taking a look at a new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To address this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The implication is that the market has actually reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits went beyond expectations: Many investors were worried that as stocks dropped, this downturn would likewise be reflected in their incomes report. The reports were not almost as bad as lots of feared.
Investors are hoping for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is worried that this is occurring prematurely, before the essential financial goals have been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen frequently, and this has actually certainly been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally happen prior to the one that is sustainable gets here and starts the next bull market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some healings require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearish market rally. History indicates that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not unmatched.
Inflation should boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next bull market, we require to see a sustained decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product prices falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market beginning to weaken. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still may not persuade the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest hikes.
The primary ETF to mention here is ARKK. It sprung into the limelight in 2020, with its disruptive investments managed by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK got around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls approximately 10 different ETFs, offering direct exposure to different sectors of the market, with the primary focus on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) is greatly weighted towards healthcare and information technology assets. The ETF uses exposure to a series of sectors, permitting you to increase the diversity of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain optimistic that we may have seen the bearishness reach its bottom however at the same time careful about the current rally being the sustainable healing that will result in the next bull market. For that to take place, inflation still needs to come down.