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The very first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Considering that the start of the 2nd half of the year, the market has begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the theoretical threshold for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we taking a look at a new booming market or is this a bearishness rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the marketplace seeing a little rally prior to another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The implication is that the market has actually reached its bottom as the cost has been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues surpassed expectations: Lots of investors were worried that as stocks plummeted, this downturn would also be shown in their profits report. The reports were not almost as bad as numerous feared.
Investors are expecting an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is happening prematurely, prior to the essential financial objectives have actually been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen often, and this has indeed been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually occur prior to the one that is sustainable gets here and starts the next booming market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearishness rally. History suggests that we might have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not unmatched.
Inflation must boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity costs falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to deteriorate. Despite these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is coming down, which still may not persuade the Fed that it is time to halt rate of interest hikes.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay positive that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will lead to the next booming market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.