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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. However given that the start of the second half of the year, the marketplace has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the theoretical limit for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we looking at a new booming market or is this a bearish market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the marketplace seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To answer this concern, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor belief: The implication is that the market has reached its bottom as the rate has been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Hence, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits exceeded expectations: Numerous investors were worried that as stocks plummeted, this decline would also be shown in their profits report. Nevertheless, the reports were not almost as bad as numerous feared.
Financiers are wishing for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is occurring too soon, prior to the required economic objectives have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur often, and this has certainly been a huge one. Compared to the three previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which normally take place before the one that is sustainable shows up and begins the next bull market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearish market rally. History shows that we might have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not extraordinary.
Inflation needs to boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next booming market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity rates falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to compromise. Regardless of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is coming down, which still may not convince the Fed that it is time to halt rates of interest hikes.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay positive that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will result in the next bull market. For that to take place, inflation still needs to come down.